I was recently provided with an important life lesson on outdoor risk assessment. This lesson was related to dealing with the reality when Mother Nature says no. She has no interest in your plans, level of preparation, and personal excitement. She calls the shots. It is up to us to listen.
I was proudly planning to lead a group of over thirty outdoor women on a snow camping adventure. Our group was a mix of experienced adventurers and incredibly courageous beginners. There were even one or two amazing women who had never backpacked before. Several had purchased or rented new gear for the adventure and the anticipation level was high. Several others had rearranged their personal and professional schedule. The trip was planned for the second of weekend of January at Paradise on Mt. Rainier. We all knew that winter weather can be fickle but we had no clue how decisive the signs would be.
I have a practice of checking four main weather information sources before any winter trip into the mountains. These resources, linked below, are NOAA, Atmos, Mountain-Forecast, and NWAC. These sources are all fantastic in their own right and together paint a comprehensive picture of expected conditions. It is always important to check, double-check, and triple-check all resources to fully understand the risk and conditions profile. My Go/No-Go decisions for another outdoor adventure are always made on this criteria. The need for appropriate caution and smart decision making becomes even more important when leading others.
The conditions for our weekend were looking challenging but not impossible four days before the trip. All three weather resources were predicting 5 - 6 inches snow and light to mid level winds. The exact numbers changed as the date grew closer as they always do. The nature of mountain weather, especially on prominent peaks like Rainier, is extremely variable. I have made it a practice to trust nothing until the day before.
Our final decision was driven by the NWAC forecast. The NWAC forecast conditions were holding until the night before our departure and suddenly took a dramatic turn for the worse. The forecast at tree line went from Yellow/Moderate to Orange/Considerable. The forecast near tree line went from Orange/Considerable to Red/High. The forecast above tree line was the same. We were looking at an Orange / Red /Red combination as you moved up the mountain. This is an evil mix for any area near or above the tree line and Paradise very much qualifies. So did our last minute Plan B option of the Bouillon Basin area near Crystal Mountain Resort. There was simply no place to go without potentially putting my own and others lives at risk.
We were forced to make the hard decision the morning of the event. It was a difficult decision to cancel the trip. It was difficult to disappoint so many who had worked so hard to join us. It was an incredibly tough moment to announce that we could not go. This was a first cancellation experience for me in a group leadership position. I had no idea how difficult that moment would be. This was no comparison though to the potential alternate reality of risking my life and the lives of others. This I could not do. I would make the same decision again.
I consider myself blessed to have had access to the information required to make this choice. The amazing people at NWAC, NOAA, Atmos, and Mountain-Forecast allowed the group to make a comprehensive risk assessment. It was sad to be denied by Mother Nature but the reality check was a welcome lesson. It is her world out there and we are just visiting. I hope to always make the choice to grant her the respect she deserves.
Next time. The Mountain isn't going anywhere. It is important to always keep this in mind and live to adventure, climb, or explorer another day.
Mountain / Rainier Forecast Resources:
NWAC: http://www.nwac.us/avalanche-forecast/current/
NOAA: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=46.87&lon=-121.75
Mountain-Forecast: http://www.mountain-forecast.com
Atmos: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/rainier_report.html
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